Why it matters
An early venture is a set of uncertain assumptions. Progress means reducing the uncertainty that matters for the next decision. A neat dashboard can hide weak evidence, while a disappointing experiment can save you months. Keep a record that makes both visible.
How to do it
State the decision first.
Are you choosing a customer group, changing an offer, investing in a build, or continuing a pilot? The evidence you need depends on that decision.
Label the strength and source.
Distinguish a founder’s report, an attached record, and a mentor’s review. Keep survey intentions, signed agreements, payments, and repeated use in separate categories.
Look for selection effects.
Ask who is missing from the sample. Friends, enthusiastic early users, or only the people who replied may produce a misleading picture. Record the denominator as well as the success count.
Choose the next uncertainty to reduce.
Write what you now believe, what remains uncertain, and what you will test next. A continue, revise, or stop decision can all be progress when the reasoning is explicit.
A worked example
Ten people joined our waitlist, so we have product-market fit.
Ten of 120 visitors applied after seeing the price. Four matched our target customer. Two agreed to a follow-up conversation. We still need to test purchase and continued use.
The second statement is less dramatic and more useful. It tells you what happened and what remains unknown.
A common trap
Turning a universal score or survey threshold into a guarantee of fundability. Context, retention, economics, team, market, and investor fit all matter.
Try it yourself
Review your last experiment. Write the assumption, the observed result, the strongest alternative explanation, and your next decision.
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